Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers Best Bet – 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Johnny Cueto - Angels
  • Brant Hurter - Tigers

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On August 27, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will host the Los Angeles Angels at Comerica Park in what marks the beginning of a series between these two teams. The Tigers, currently sitting at .500 with a record of 66-66, are in the midst of an average season. In contrast, the Angels are struggling significantly, with a disappointing 54-77 record. This game carries added weight for the Tigers as they look to gain momentum against a team that has been underperforming.

Brant Hurter is projected to take the mound for Detroit, having started three games this season with a 1-1 record and a solid 3.57 ERA. While his 2.62 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, the projections indicate he may not pitch deep into the game, averaging only 4.6 innings. He will face Johnny Cueto, who has had a rough go this year, starting just one game with an ERA of 4.26. Cueto's 5.71 xFIP indicates he’s been somewhat fortunate, and he projects to allow 3.3 earned runs over 5.2 innings, which is below par.

Offensively, both teams have struggled mightily. The Tigers rank 26th in MLB in offensive production, while the Angels sit just above them at 25th. However, Detroit's recent offensive spark from Zach McKinstry, who has been their best hitter over the past week, may provide a glimmer of hope. McKinstry has recorded six hits, including one home run, while boasting a .500 batting average and a 1.321 OPS in his last five games.

With the Tigers favored at -155 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 5.21 runs, they will be looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage against a struggling Angels squad. This matchup presents an opportunity for Detroit to build some much-needed momentum as they push through the remainder of the season.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

In his previous start, Johnny Cueto didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out and only managed to tally 1 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Extreme flyball batters like Jack Lopez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Brant Hurter.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Brant Hurter has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 15 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Parker Meadows is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 43 games (+18.85 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 59 games (+4.80 Units / 7% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 45 games (+16.20 Units / 22% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.86 vs Detroit Tigers 5.69

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