Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds Best Bet – 4/20/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Cincinnati Reds Overview

• Date: April 20, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Sandoval - Angels
  • Graham Ashcraft - Reds
• Run Line: Angels 1.5 -175, Reds -1.5 150
• Money Line: Angels 105, Reds -125
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -110

Los Angeles Angels vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Angels - 47%
• Cincinnati Reds - 53%

Los Angeles Angels vs Cincinnati Reds Game Preview & Prediction

On April 20, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will be hosting the Los Angeles Angels at Great American Ball Park in an interleague matchup. The Reds, who currently hold a 10-9 record this season, are having an above-average season, while the Angels are struggling with a 9-11 record, putting them below average.

The Reds are projected to start right-handed pitcher Graham Ashcraft, who has a record of 2-1 this year with an ERA of 4.15. Despite his ERA being above average, his 3.09 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ashcraft is ranked #87 out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him above average.

On the other side, the Angels will likely start left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval has a record of 1-2 this season with an ERA of 4.67. However, his 2.85 FIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is expected to perform better in the future. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Sandoval is ranked #41 out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him a good pitcher.

In terms of offense, the Reds rank as the 15th best team in MLB, while the Angels rank slightly lower at 18th. The Reds excel in stolen bases, ranking first in the league, while the Angels have a powerful offense, ranking third in home runs. However, the Angels struggle in stolen bases, ranking 27th out of 30 teams.

Taking a look at the betting odds, the Reds are slightly favored with a moneyline set at -125, indicating an implied win probability of 53%. The Angels have a moneyline of +105, giving them an implied win probability of 47%. This suggests that the game is expected to be close.

Overall, the Reds have a higher projected win probability, while the Angels have a higher implied win probability. Based on the projections and the odds, it appears that this game could be a closely contested matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The Cincinnati Reds have 6 batters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Patrick Sandoval in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Nolan Schanuel has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Elly De La Cruz has been hot lately, bashing 2 dingers in the last 7 days.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Will Benson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Angels vs Reds Prediction: Angels 4.62 - Reds 5.03

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