Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs Prediction For 7/7/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: July 7, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Hayden Wesneski - Cubs

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Angels are set for an intriguing interleague matchup on July 7, 2024, at Wrigley Field. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Cubs holding a 41-49 record and the Angels at 37-51. Despite their below-average seasons, this game offers a compelling pitching duel and some interesting dynamics at play.

The Cubs will send Hayden Wesneski to the mound. Wesneski, who has a 2-5 record with a 4.14 ERA, has oscillated between the rotation and the bullpen this year. Advanced metrics hint at some luck in his favor, as his 4.78 xERA and 4.92 FIP suggest he might regress. On the other side, the Angels counter with Jose Soriano, who has a 4-6 record and a solid 3.77 ERA. Soriano ranks as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicating he's been effective this season.

Offensively, neither team has been particularly potent. The Cubs rank 18th in overall offense, with glaring weaknesses in batting average (25th) and home runs (23rd). However, they do have a strength in stolen bases, ranking 9th. The Angels' offense is slightly better, ranking 17th overall, with an average ranking in home runs (14th) but struggling in batting average (20th).

Ian Happ has been red-hot for the Cubs over the last week, hitting .368 with a 1.244 OPS, 2 home runs, and 8 RBIs. On the Angels side, Logan O'Hoppe has been their standout, hitting .353 with a .833 OPS in his last five games.

The Cubs are favored with a moneyline of -140, implying a 56% chance of winning, which aligns perfectly with THE BAT X projections. The game total is set at a high 9.5 runs, and both teams are expected to score well above their seasonal averages.

With both teams looking to turn their seasons around, this game presents a fascinating battle between two right-handers and two underperforming offenses. The Cubs' slight edge in pitching and bullpen performance, coupled with their recent offensive spark from Happ, makes them the team to watch in this contest.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Over his last 3 starts, Jose Soriano has produced a big increase in his fastball spin rate: from 1903 rpm over the whole season to 2021 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Zach Neto's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 88.4-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 79.4-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Logan O'Hoppe pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Hayden Wesneski has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 14.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Typically, bats like Tomas Nido who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jose Soriano.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago Cubs have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael Busch, Christopher Morel, Pete Crow-Armstrong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 70 games (+11.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 away games (+10.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Taylor Ward has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+16.05 Units / 40% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 5.43 vs Chicago Cubs 5.67

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.