Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs Prediction For 7/5/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Angels
  • Justin Steele - Cubs

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs host the Los Angeles Angels on July 5, 2024, in what shapes up to be a lopsided interleague matchup at Wrigley Field. Neither team is contending for a playoff spot, but recent form and starting pitching indicate a favorable situation for the Cubs.

The Cubs (40-48) are coming off a dominant 10-2 victory over the Phillies, showcasing the potential of their offense, which otherwise ranks 22nd in MLB in underlying talent. Meanwhile, the Angels (36-50) lost 5-0 to the Athletics in their last outing. The Cubs have the edge in tonight's game, driven by their recent offensive surge and superior starting pitching matchup.

Chicago will send left-hander Justin Steele to the mound. Steele boasts a solid 3.20 ERA over 12 starts this season, ranking as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a winless record at 0-3, Steele's underlying metrics suggest he's been a reliable starter. In his last outing on June 29, Steele delivered an uneventful start, pitching six innings and allowing three earned runs.

The Angels counter with Griffin Canning, whose season has been a struggle. Canning holds a 4.71 ERA and a 3-8 record over 17 starts. More concerning, his 5.25 FIP indicates he's likely been fortunate this year and could regress. In his last start, Canning gave up four earned runs over six innings against the Athletics. The projections don't favor him, as he's expected to allow 3.5 earned runs and strike out just 4.3 batters on average today.

Offensively, the Cubs have the edge on the basepaths, ranking 8th in stolen bases compared to the Angels' similar rank. However, the Cubs lag behind in power metrics, sitting at 24th in team batting average and 21st in home runs. The Angels are more balanced, ranking 13th in home runs and 16th in overall offensive talent.

Betting markets reflect the Cubs' advantage, with a moneyline of -195 and an implied win probability of 64%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this assessment, projecting the Cubs' win probability at 65%, reinforcing Chicago's status as the big favorite in this matchup.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning's change-up utilization has risen by 5.9% from last season to this one (21.8% to 27.7%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Zach Neto's average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 88.7-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 81.4-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Los Angeles grades out as the #3 group of hitters in Major League Baseball when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (16.6% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Justin Steele's 2428-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 83rd percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

When it comes to his batting average, Miguel Amaya has experienced some negative variance this year. His .186 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .234.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Chicago's 92.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #6 team in MLB this year by this stat.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 60 games (+12.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 76 games (+10.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.50 Units / 54% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 5.13 vs Chicago Cubs 6.67

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