Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Prediction For 4/12/2024

Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reid Detmers - Angels
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
• Run Line: Angels 1.5 -180, Red Sox -1.5 155
• Money Line: Angels 105, Red Sox -125
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -120

Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Los Angeles Angels - 47%
• Boston Red Sox - 53%

Projected Win %:

• Los Angeles Angels - 47.2%
• Boston Red Sox - 52.8%

Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

On April 12, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will face off against the Los Angeles Angels at Fenway Park. The Red Sox, with a record of 7-6 this season, are having an above-average season, while the Angels, with a record of 6-6, are having an average season. This American League matchup is the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tanner Houck, who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Houck is ranked as the 32nd best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. In his two starts this year, Houck has a perfect 2-0 record with an impressive 0.00 ERA. However, his 1.72 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

The Angels will counter with left-handed pitcher Reid Detmers, who is ranked as the 52nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings. Detmers has also started two games this season, with a 2-0 record and a solid 1.64 ERA. However, his 2.24 xERA indicates that he may have been lucky, while his 1.12 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward.

In terms of offense, the Red Sox rank 19th in MLB this season, while the Angels rank 15th. However, the Red Sox have the third-best team batting average, while the Angels have the third-most home runs in the league. Both teams have average rankings for stolen bases.

Considering the pitching matchup, Houck's high strikeout rate may give him an advantage against the Angels' high-strikeout offense. Additionally, Houck's high groundball rate could neutralize the power-hitting Angels lineup. However, the Angels' offense has the potential to capitalize on their home run power if they can make solid contact.

According to THE BAT X, the Red Sox have a projected win probability of 53%, while the Angels have a 47% chance of winning. The current moneyline odds reflect a close game, with the Red Sox being favored at -125 and the Angels at +105.

Based on the projections, the Red Sox have a high implied team total of 4.40 runs, while the Angels have an average implied team total of 4.10 runs. THE BAT X projects the Red Sox to score 4.86 runs on average in this game, slightly lower than the Angels' projection of 4.87 runs.

With an intriguing pitching matchup and two teams with offensive strengths, this game is expected to be closely contested. Both teams have the potential to come out on top, making it an exciting matchup for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Throwing 93.2 adjusted pitches per outing since the start of last season on average, Reid Detmers places him the 83rd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Brandon Drury is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Logan O'Hoppe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.4% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tanner Houck's four-seamer percentage has dropped by 9.2% from last season to this one (9.8% to 0.6%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

In the past 14 days, Triston Casas has averaged an impressive 104.5-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced proxy for home run potential.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Today’s version of the Red Sox projected batting order is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .306 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .317 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 77 games (+9.90 Units / 12% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels 4.87 vs Boston Red Sox 4.86

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.