Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals Prediction & Odds – 9/24/2024

• Date: September 24, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals host the Kansas City Royals at Nationals Park on September 24, 2024, both teams are trending in different directions this season. The Nationals, sitting at 69-87, are enduring a rough year, while the Royals, with an 82-74 record, are having an above-average season. This game marks the first in the series, adding an extra layer of intrigue as Interleague play unfolds.

Washington's Mitchell Parker, ranked as the 168th best starting pitcher in MLB, will take the mound against Kansas City's Cole Ragans, who is currently the 14th best according to advanced Power Rankings. Parker's numbers reveal a season of mixed fortunes; his 4.44 ERA is indicative of average performance, but a 3.90 FIP suggests he's been a tad unlucky. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, estimates Parker to pitch an underwhelming 4.9 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs on average, a highlight of his struggles.

On the other side, Ragans boasts an impressive 3.24 ERA, clearly establishing him as an elite hurler. However, his projected 5.8 innings and 2.0 earned runs allowed denote a slightly average outing by his lofty standards. The Royals will rely on their bullpen, ranked 9th best, to maintain their edge, whereas the Nationals’ bullpen, ranked 28th, will look to hold the fort.

Offensively, the Nationals have shown prowess on the basepaths, leading the league in stolen bases but lacking power, ranking 29th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Royals have a more balanced approach at the plate, ranking 7th in team batting average and 20th in home runs.

Though the Nationals enter this matchup as the underdogs, with an implied win probability of 40%, their ability to put the ball in play against the strikeout-heavy style of Ragans might just tip the scale slightly in their favor, as THE BAT X projects a slightly higher 41% win probability.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed hitters in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Maikel Garcia has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .237 rate is a good deal lower than his .277 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Bobby Witt Jr. has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Among every team playing today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Washington Nationals.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

In the last two weeks' worth of games, Dylan Crews's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The weakest projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 83 of their last 149 games (+7.25 Units / 4% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.55 Units / 43% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+8.05 Units / 14% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.54 vs Washington Nationals 3.23

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