Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 8/3/2025
The Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays will wrap up their three-game weekend series on Sunday at Rogers Centre in Toronto. These teams have split the first two games of this series. Both will look to gain the upper hand in this rubber match in a game that features a good pitching matchup. For a full breakdown of this American League matchup, including my Royals vs Blue Jays prediction, continue reading below.
Our Royals vs Blue Jays Pick
- Pick: Blue Jays moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays
- Date & Time: Sunday, August 3, 2025, 1:37 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Seth Lugo (8‑5, 3.03 ERA) vs Chris Bassitt (11‑5, 4.24 ERA)
- Stadium: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Seth Lugo arrives with strong numbers in day games for the Royals. He is 8-5 and has an ERA just over 3.00. He will go up against Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays. Bassitt has been dominant at home this year with an 8‑0 home record Rogers Centre. Facing Bassitt will be a tough assignment for Kansas City’s hitters given how well Bassitt has pitched at this venue.
Key Players
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Guerrero is batting .292 with 16 home runs and 58 RBI. He is always one swing away from making an impact on a game.
- Bo Bichette: Bichette has a team‑leading 68 RBI for the Blue Jays and he went 3-4 at the plate on Saturday.
- Salvador Perez: Perez hit a home run for the Royals on Saturday and leads the team with 20 longballs on the year.
Recent team streaks
- The Blue Jays have won two of their last three games coming into Sunday’s action.
- Kansas City has won three of their last four games and had a three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The season series between these teams is tied 1-1 after the first two games of this weekend’s series.
- The over/under is 1-1 in games played between these teams this season.
- Toronto has gone over the total in 56.1% of their games. That is the highest percentage of overs in MLB this season.
Royals vs Blue Jays Model Projection
Score Projection: Blue Jays 5 – Royals 3
Win Probability: Blue Jays 58%, Royals 42%
Final Thoughts
The Toronto Blue Jays are 20 games above .500 at home this season at 38-18. Chris Bassitt has gone 8-0 at home to this point in the year. Their dominance at home both collectively and with the starting pitcher for this game should give the Jays a decided advantage in this matchup. I will lay the juice with the Blue Jays to win this game and win this three-game series by a 2-1 margin.
