Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/21/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: June 21, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Royals
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

On June 21, 2024, the Texas Rangers will host the Kansas City Royals at Globe Life Field in an intriguing American League matchup. The Rangers are struggling with a 34-40 record while the Royals are enjoying a much better season at 42-34. With both teams looking to establish momentum, this opening game of their series promises to be a captivating contest.

The Rangers are slated to start Nathan Eovaldi, who holds a 3-3 record this season with a stellar 3.15 ERA. Despite his success, Eovaldi's advanced stats such as his 3.67 FIP suggest a bit of luck has been involved, meaning he could face challenges ahead. On the other side, Kansas City will counter with Brady Singer, a pitcher with a more middling profile. Singer's 4-4 record and 3.39 ERA are solid but his 4.17 FIP implies he too might regress.

Eovaldi is a high-strikeout pitcher, fanning 26.0% of batters this year, yet he's set to face a Royals lineup that ranks 4th in fewest strikeouts. This could be a tough matchup for him, as Kansas City's hitters excel at making contact. The Royals' offense is ranked 14th overall, supported by a good team batting average (.275) and strong base running (7th most stolen bases).

Conversely, the Rangers' bats have been less impressive, ranking 22nd in overall offensive performance. They've struggled with power (19th in home runs) and base running (22nd in steals). Their best hitter over the last week has been Josh H. Smith, who has 5 RBIs, 1 home run, and a .375 batting average through his past four games.

Looking at the bullpen, the Rangers hold an advantage, sitting 12th in the Power Rankings compared to the Royals’ 24th. The pitching depth could play a crucial role, particularly if the starters falter early.

Despite their below-average overall performance, the Rangers are favored with a -145 moneyline, equating to a 57% implied win probability. Betting markets project Texas to score 4.31 runs, which suggests faith in their ability to get to Singer. In contrast, the Royals face a tougher challenge with a low implied total of 3.69 runs.

With Eovaldi’s high-strikeout ability and a slightly better bullpen, the Rangers seem positioned to edge the Royals in this opening game. However, keep an eye on the Royals' contact-heavy approach, which could disrupt Eovaldi's rhythm and tilt the balance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Globe Life Field — the #6 HR venue in MLB — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Nick Loftin has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 82.3-mph dropping to 80.2-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen projects as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Given his reverse platoon split, Nathan Eovaldi faces a tough challenge going up against 6 batters in the projected batting order of the same handedness today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball bats like Marcus Semien generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brady Singer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 11th-best hitter in MLB.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games (+15.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 74 games (+9.44 Units / 9% ROI)
• Corey Seager has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+18.10 Units / 39% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.84 vs Texas Rangers 4.32

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