Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Prediction – 6/17/2025

On June 17, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Kansas City Royals at Globe Life Field in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Rangers sitting at 36-36 and the Royals at 34-38, indicating a fairly average season for Texas and a below-average performance from Kansas City. The Rangers will look to build momentum after a strong showing in their previous game, while the Royals aim to turn their fortunes around after struggling offensively.

The Rangers will be sending Jack Leiter to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season. Despite being ranked as the 256th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Leiter has a respectable ERA of 3.88. However, his peripherals suggest he might be overachieving. He projects to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, but his high walk rate of 12.1% could be troubling against a Royals lineup that ranks 1st in the league for the least walks.

On the other side, the Royals will counter with Seth Lugo, another right-hander, who boasts an impressive ERA of 3.18. Lugo has pitched slightly better than Leiter in terms of pure results, but his projections indicate that he, too, may be due for some regression. Despite his high innings pitched projection of 6.0, he also faces challenges with a below-average strikeout rate.

Offensively, the Rangers rank 27th in the league, which is concerning given their low batting average. Conversely, the Royals are 26th overall but have some promise in their batting average, sitting 13th. With the game total set at an average of 8.5 runs, oddsmakers are anticipating a tightly contested matchup, with the Rangers holding a slight edge at -130 on the moneyline. As both teams look to gain an upper hand in this series, it sets the stage for an interesting clash between these two struggling squads.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo has gone to his curveball 5.4% less often this year (20.9%) than he did last year (26.3%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Kyle Isbel's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 90-mph mark last season has fallen to 87.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Kansas City Royals (20.3 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy set of hitters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jack Leiter's 96.8-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 97th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Corey Seager's true offensive ability to be a .373, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .059 deviation between that mark and his actual .314 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Texas Rangers bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 59 games (+18.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 71 games (+30.60 Units / 37% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 59% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.53, Texas Rangers 4.56

• Date: June 17, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers

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