Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Pick – 6/18/2025

The Texas Rangers will host the Kansas City Royals at Globe Life Field on June 18, 2025, in a matchup of two struggling teams in the American League. Both squads are hovering around the .500 mark, with the Rangers holding a record of 36-37 and the Royals slightly behind at 35-38. In their last outing, the Rangers faced the Royals just yesterday, with the Royals claiming a 6-1 win.

On the mound, Texas will send Patrick Corbin to the hill, who has had a mixed season with a Win/Loss record of 4-5 and a solid ERA of 3.66. However, his xFIP of 4.24 suggests he may have been a bit lucky, and the projections indicate he could struggle against a Royals lineup that features a low strikeout rate. In contrast, Kris Bubic will start for Kansas City, boasting an impressive ERA of 1.92 and a strong Win/Loss record of 5-4. His performance thus far ranks him as the 34th best starting pitcher in MLB, while Corbin sits at a lower 312th.

Offensively, the Rangers rank 27th in the league, with below-average batting numbers and a subpar team batting average. Their power potential is average, as evidenced by their 16th rank in home runs. On the other hand, the Royals, while also struggling offensively, have shown some resilience with their 14th rank in team batting average despite being dead last in home runs.

The projected game total of 8.5 runs indicates a competitive matchup, and with the Rangers' implied team total at 4.10 runs and the Royals at 4.40, this game could very well highlight where the strengths and weaknesses of these teams intersect. With both starting pitchers having contrasting seasons, this game presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors to note.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Kris Bubic has tallied 18.4 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 94th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

In the last week, Maikel Garcia's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

In today's game, Jac Caglianone is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.3% rate (92nd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

With 8 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Patrick Corbin meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Ezequiel Duran's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.1-mph figure last year has fallen off to 84.7-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Texas Rangers have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 59 games (+18.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 64 games (+28.15 Units / 38% ROI)
• Mark Canha has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+12.85 Units / 30% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.91, Texas Rangers 4.08

• Date: June 18, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kris Bubic - Royals
  • Patrick Corbin - Rangers

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