Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 5/24/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Shawn Armstrong - Rays

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Kansas City Royals at Tropicana Field on May 24, 2024. The Rays, with a season record of 25-26, are having an average season, while the Royals boast an impressive 32-19 record and are having a great season.

The Rays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Shawn Armstrong, who has had a below-average performance this year. On the other hand, the Royals are expected to start Seth Lugo, an average pitcher.

This game marks the first in a series between these two teams. In their previous games, the Rays lost to the Red Sox with a score of 8-5, while the Royals emerged victorious against the Tigers with a score of 8-3.

Offensively, the Rays rank 22nd in MLB this season, indicating an average performance overall. However, they excel in team batting average, ranking 9th, and team home runs, ranking 4th. They also have the 2nd highest number of stolen bases in the league. On the other hand, the Royals rank 11th overall, with an average performance in team batting average and team stolen bases. However, they rank 26th in team home runs.

Isaac Paredes has been the Rays' best hitter this season, with impressive stats including a .308 batting average and a .907 OPS. Meanwhile, Bobby Witt Jr. has been the standout hitter for the Royals, with a .308 batting average, a .915 OPS, and 16 stolen bases.

In terms of pitching, Shawn Armstrong has a win/loss record of 1-1 this year, with an ERA of 4.03, which is above average. However, his 3.47 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Seth Lugo, with a 7-1 record and an excellent ERA of 1.79, has been a strong asset for the Royals. However, his 3.56 xFIP indicates that he may regress in future performances.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Rays in this game with a projected win probability of 56%, compared to the Royals' 44%. The current moneyline for both teams is set at -110, indicating a close game according to betting markets.

With the Rays having an average implied team total of 4.00 runs and the Royals having the same, THE BAT X projects the Rays to score an average of 4.44 runs, while the Royals are projected to score 4.13 runs.

Based on the projections, the Rays have a win probability that is 6% greater than the betting market suggests, indicating potential value in betting on the Rays. It will be an exciting game as both teams look to secure a victory in this highly anticipated matchup.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo has relied on his curveball 10% less often this season (19.3%) than he did last year (29.3%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

This season, there has been a decline in Maikel Garcia's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.19 ft/sec last year to 27.67 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Ranking 6th-highest in MLB since the start of last season, Kansas City Royals batters jointly have notched a 13.6° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced stat to evaluate power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Jose Siri has had some very good luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 33.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a good deal higher than his 24.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen grades out as the 7th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games (+16.80 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Freddy Fermin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 games (+6.85 Units / 105% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.43 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.35

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.