Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick & Preview – 5/26/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 26, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On May 26, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will face off against the Kansas City Royals at Tropicana Field. As the home team, the Rays will look to improve their below-average season record of 25-28. The Royals, on the other hand, are having a great season with a record of 34-19.

The Rays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Taj Bradley, who has a 1-2 win/loss record this year. Despite his average performance, Bradley has shown promise with an ERA of 4.00 and an xFIP of 2.82, suggesting he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the mound for the Royals will be right-handed pitcher Michael Wacha, who has a 4-4 win/loss record and an average ERA of 4.45. However, both his xERA and FIP indicate that he has been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

Taj Bradley, a high-flyball pitcher, will face a Royals offense that lacks power, which may work to his advantage. However, the low-walk Royals offense could pose a challenge for Bradley, who relies on throwing strikes. The Game Total for today's game is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring matchup.

In terms of betting odds, the Rays are favored with a moneyline of -120, giving them an implied win probability of 52%. The Royals have a moneyline of +100, with an implied win probability of 48%. The Rays have an average implied team total of 3.84 runs, while the Royals have a lower implied team total of 3.66 runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's fastball velocity has spiked 1.2 mph this season (92.6 mph) over where it was last season (91.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Maikel Garcia's speed has decreased this year. His 28.19 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.67 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley has a mean projection of 1.3 walks in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Jonny Deluca has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .341 figure is quite a bit higher than his .243 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The 5th-weakest projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games (+13.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 52 games (+16.29 Units / 23% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.60 Units / 60% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.1 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.16

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