Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 6/3/2025

On June 3, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Kansas City Royals in an Interleague matchup at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals are currently 33-26, enjoying a solid season, while the Royals sit at 31-29, performing above expectations. This game marks the first in a series between the two teams, adding an extra layer of intrigue to the matchup.

Andre Pallante is projected to start for the Cardinals, bringing an average Win/Loss record of 4-3 and an ERA of 4.23 this season. Though the advanced-stat Power Rankings consider him the 108th best starting pitcher, his underlying metrics show promise, hinting at possible improvement.

On the other side, the Royals will counter with Michael Lorenzen, who has struggled this year with a 3-6 record and an ERA of 4.33. The projections suggest that Lorenzen may not hold up against a Cardinals offense ranked 10th best in MLB, particularly given St. Louis' strong batting average of .275, which ranks 4th. The Royals, while averaging a respectable .259, rank 26th overall in offensive power, with only 34 home runs this season.

The Cardinals are betting favorites with a moneyline of -140 and an implied team total of 4.54 runs for today's game. Given their current form and the advantage of home-field support, St. Louis looks well-positioned to take the opener against Kansas City. As the game total is set at 8.5 runs, all eyes will be on whether the Cardinals can capitalize on their offensive strengths against a struggling pitcher like Lorenzen.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Lorenzen was in good form in his last game started and put up 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Kansas City Royals have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Andre Pallante (59.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 2 GB hitters in Kansas City's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

This season, Ivan Herrera has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 101.2 mph compared to last year's 91.5 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The 7.5% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals grades them out as the #25 team in baseball this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games (+12.85 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 41 games (+18.95 Units / 40% ROI)
• Victor Scott II has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.85 Units / 47% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.56, St. Louis Cardinals 4.75

• Date: June 3, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

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