Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 6/4/2025

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Kansas City Royals on June 4, 2025, in a critical matchup for both teams as they fight for playoff position. The Cardinals are currently 33-27, showing signs of a strong season, while the Royals, at 32-29, also find themselves above average. The previous game in the series saw the Royals earn a 10-7 victory, setting the stage for another competitive battle at Busch Stadium.

Miles Mikolas is set to take the mound for the Cardinals, bringing a 4-2 record and a solid 3.90 ERA this season. Despite being ranked #199 among starting pitchers, Mikolas has demonstrated an ability to keep runs off the board, though his 4.90 xFIP suggests he may be due for some regression. His low strikeout rate of 14.5% could be tested against a low-strikeout Royals offense, which ranks 3rd least in MLB.

On the other side, Noah Cameron is projected to start for the Royals. With a standout 1.05 ERA in just four starts, Cameron's luck may be running thin given his higher xFIP of 4.50, indicating he might not sustain this level of performance. His low strikeout rate of 16.3% could also hinder his effectiveness against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 10th in MLB.

Offensively, the Cardinals boast the 4th best batting average in baseball, though they struggle with power, ranking 25th in home runs. The Royals, while averaging in batting, rank a dismal 30th in home runs, potentially giving Mikolas the advantage he needs to keep them at bay. With a Game Total of 8.0 runs, this contest appears to be a close one, and the Cardinals' slight edge could be pivotal as they look to solidify their standing in the competitive National League landscape.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Noah Cameron must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot since the start of last season: 72.2% of the time, checking in at the 97th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Kyle Isbel's average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 88.1-mph average last season has dropped off to 85.5-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Kansas City Royals have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas's fastball velocity has fallen 1.8 mph this season (91.3 mph) below where it was last season (93.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Arenado tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Noah Cameron.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

St. Louis Cardinals hitters as a group grade out 25th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 7.5% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 games (+9.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 57 games (+16.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• Victor Scott II has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.68, St. Louis Cardinals 4.64

• Date: June 4, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Noah Cameron - Royals
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.