Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 7/3/2025

The Kansas City Royals (40‑47) visit the Seattle Mariners (45‑41) on Thursday, July 3, 2025, in what shapes up to be a compelling showdown between a hot-hitting home team and a Royals club hoping to rebound. Here, I break down this game in the betting markets and make my Royals vs Mariners prediction for Thursday night in the Pacific Northwest.

Our Royals vs Mariners Pick

• Pick: Under 7.5 runs (-110)
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners
• Date & Time: Thursday, July 3, 2025 – 10:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo (SEA) vs Seth Lugo (KC)
• Stadium: T‑Mobile Park (Seattle, WA)
• Broadcast: ROOT Sports NW and FDSKC

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• Seth Lugo anchors Kansas City’s rotation, boasting a 5‑5 record with a 2.74 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 88.2 innings. He’s limited opponents to two runs or less in 10 of 15 starts and has a 1.08 WHIP, but I struggle backing him times due to a lack of run support from the Royals.
• Bryan Woo will make the start tonight for the Mariners. Woo is 7-4 with a 2.93 ERA and we will need to see him at or near his best to outduel Lugo tonight.

Bullpen Usage

Both of these teams have top-10 bullpens in terms of ERA. The Royals are slightly better with a 3.55 bullpen ERA compared to the Mariners’ 3.61 mark. But we should see a low-scoring game thanks to both pens being solid and both starters being good as well.

Recent Team Streaks

• Mariners have won 3 of their last 4 games.
• Royals have dropped 3 of their last 4 games.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Seattle is 29-26 as favorites.
• The Mariners have the second-highest over percentage in MLB this season (57.3%)
• Seattle leads the season series between these teams 2-1.

Royals vs Mariners Model Projection

Score Projection: Seattle 4 – Kansas City 2

Win Probability: Seattle 60%, Kansas City 40%

Final Thoughts

This matchup heavily favors the pitching on both sides. The quality starting pitching on both sides and strong bullpens point us in the direction of a low-scoring contest. This ballpark suppresses runs, and both clubs should struggle to score. Backing the Under 7.5 is my top play in what should be a game that is entertaining despite the anticipated lack of scoring.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.