Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 7/1/2025

The Kansas City Royals travel to face the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday, July 1, 2025. Seattle is looking to help its chances in the AL Wild Card race, led by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh. Conversely, the Royals seek to regain control of their season following a brutal 8–17 June slump. Here, I will break down this American League matchup and make my Royals vs Mariners prediction for the night.

Our Royals vs Mariners Pick

Pick: Seattle Mariners to win, Under 8.5 total runs (two‑leg parlay)

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners
• Date & Time: Tuesday July 1, 2025 · 9:40 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Michael Lorenzen (Royals, R) vs Emerson Hancock (Mariners, R)
• Stadium: T‑Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• Broadcast: ROOT Sports NW and FDSKC

Key Storylines

Pitching form

Emerson Hancock enters with a 3–4, 5.30 ERA, with only one quality start in his last three outings. His ability to limit Kansas City’s anemic offense will be key in this game. On the other side, Michael Lorenzen is struggling at 4–8, with a 4.91 ERA, having allowed four earned runs in two of his last three starts.

Bullpen usage

Seattle’s bullpen logged heavy innings over the weekend, but it could have an easier time against the Royals’ offense. The Royals’ relief corps has been shaky, recently passing on reliever Hunter Harvey to the 60‑day injured list, weakening their late-game depth.

Recent team streaks

Seattle is 3–2 over their past five and tends to produce high-scoring games at home (Over has hit in 4 of their last 5), while Kansas City is collapsing, enduring an 8–17 June run and losing 7 of their last 8.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Kansas City is 24–28 as underdogs, 10–12 as dogs of +116 or longer.
• Games between these teams have gone over the total in 8 of their last 11 meetings.
• Seattle is 3–2 to the over in the last 5 games, the Royals have gone 2–3.

Mariners vs Royals Model Projection

Score Projection: Seattle 4 – Kansas City 2

Win Probability: Seattle 63%, Kansas City 37%

Final Thoughts

Seattle has momentum, home-field advantage, and the bat of Raleigh, while Kansas City continues to struggle both at the plate and on the mound. Seattle’s advantage in lineup depth and home atmosphere should be decisive. My best betting play for this game is Seattle on the moneyline paired with the Under 8.5 runs.