Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 5/19/2025

On May 19, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Kansas City Royals at Oracle Park for the first game of this interleague series. Both teams are performing well, with the Giants holding a record of 28-19, while the Royals are slightly behind at 26-22. The Giants are enjoying a strong season, bolstered by their top-ranked bullpen, while the Royals have been above average, particularly with Kris Bubic on the mound.

Robbie Ray, projected to start for the Giants, is having a solid year with a 6-0 record and a commendable ERA of 3.04. However, his 4.08 xFIP indicates he might not be as fortunate going forward. Ray's high strikeout rate (26.3 K%) faces a challenge against a Royals offense that ranks 2nd least in strikeouts, which could limit his ability to capitalize on his strengths. Additionally, Ray's high walk rate (12.4 BB%) may not be exploited by a Royals lineup that is patient at the plate.

Conversely, Kris Bubic has been exceptional, posting an impressive 1.66 ERA. His projections suggest he will pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs. While the Royals' offense ranks 27th in the league, their batting average is average at 19th. With Bubic's ability to keep runs off the board, the Giants may find it challenging to score.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.0 runs, the betting markets indicate a tight contest. The Giants' current moneyline of -125 suggests they are favored to win, but their implied team total of 3.62 runs reflects the anticipated difficulty in scoring. Meanwhile, the Royals' moneyline of +105 hints at a close matchup, with their implied total at 3.38 runs. As both teams take the field, the pitching duel between Ray and Bubic will be crucial in determining the outcome.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Considering the 2.3 deviation between Kris Bubic's 1.66 ERA and his 3.96 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and figures to see worse results in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Robbie Ray's 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.1-mph drop off from last season's 94-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The San Francisco Giants have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Fitzgerald, David Villar, Patrick Bailey).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 40 games (+20.25 Units / 44% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.22, San Francisco Giants 4.38

• Date: May 19, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kris Bubic - Royals
  • Robbie Ray - Giants

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