Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 5/21/2025

On May 21, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will face off against the Kansas City Royals at Oracle Park in what is the third game of their interleague series. The Giants, currently sitting at 29-20, are in strong contention, while the Royals hold a record of 27-23, reflecting an above-average season but not quite in the same tier as their opponents. In their most recent matchup, the Giants edged the Royals 3-2, which marks an important win as they look to maintain their momentum.

Projected starting pitchers Logan Webb and Jonathan Bowlan present a distinct contrast in performance levels. Webb, ranked as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasts an impressive 2.42 ERA this season. He has been on a roll, coming off a strong outing on May 16 where he pitched 8 innings with just 1 earned run. Meanwhile, Bowlan is expected to deliver a much shorter outing, averaging only 2.9 innings pitched, which could severely limit the Royals' chances.

When analyzing the matchup, the Giants' offense ranks significantly higher than the Royals', who are struggling with a 26th overall rank in runs scored. Despite some decent individual performances from their best hitters, Kansas City's overall lack of power—ranking 30th in home runs—may be underscored by Webb's elite groundball rate of 59% this season. This might neutralize any potential threats from a Royals offense that has had trouble making significant contact.

The projections suggest that the Giants have a solid team total of 4.35 runs, while the Royals are projected for a mere 3.15 runs. With the Giants being a considerable betting favorite at -200, they look to capitalize on their strong season and keep the pressure on Kansas City.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Batters such as Salvador Perez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Logan Webb who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kansas City Royals bats as a group grade out 27th- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 7.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 10.1 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Willy Adames is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 46 games (+17.75 Units / 35% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+6.45 Units / 22% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.53, San Francisco Giants 4.6

• Date: May 21, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Bowlan - Royals
  • Logan Webb - Giants

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