Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 6/22/2025

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on June 22, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in a tightly contested matchup. The Padres currently stand at 41-35, showcasing an above-average season, while the Royals sit at 38-39, struggling to find their rhythm.

Today marks the third game of the series, with the Padres projected to send Randy Vasquez to the mound. Despite a 3-4 record and a respectable ERA of 3.70, advanced metrics suggest he ranks as the 306th best starting pitcher in MLB—indicative of his struggles. Vasquez's low strikeout rate (13.7 K%) combined with the Royals’ low-strikeout offense may make for a challenging day on the mound, especially as he also has a high walk rate (11.1 BB%).

On the other side, Seth Lugo will take the hill for the Royals. Lugo has been solid this year with a 4-5 record and an impressive ERA of 3.05, ranking him as an average pitcher according to the projections. However, he faces a Padres lineup that, despite being ranked 19th in offense, holds a better batting average than Kansas City, which ranks 27th in overall offensive metrics.

With the Padres' bullpen ranked 2nd best in MLB, they may lean on this strength if needed. This game has an average total set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the potential for a competitive contest. The betting lines are even, reflecting the closeness of the matchup and underscoring the importance of this game for both teams as they look to solidify their positions in the standings.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Given the 1.61 discrepancy between Seth Lugo's 3.05 ERA and his 4.66 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year and ought to see worse results in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 99.1-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Kansas City Royals (20.6 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez's fastball velocity has fallen 1.9 mph this year (92.4 mph) below where it was last year (94.3 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball hitters like Jose Iglesias tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Seth Lugo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 76 games (+26.90 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jac Caglianone has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 27% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.63, San Diego Padres 4.15

• Date: June 22, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.