Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 6/21/2025

The San Diego Padres host the Kansas City Royals on June 21, 2025, in the second game of their interleague series. The Padres currently sit at 40-35, enjoying an above-average season, while the Royals are slightly behind at 38-38, marking their performance as average. Both teams are looking to strengthen their position, especially the Padres, who are eyeing a more competitive run.

In their last outing, the Padres fell to the Royals, putting extra pressure on them to bounce back at Petco Park. The matchup showcases contrasting pitching styles, with the Padres set to start Dylan Cease, a right-handed pitcher who, despite his 2-6 record and average 4.69 ERA, ranks as the 20th best starter in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. His 1.56-point gap between ERA and 3.13 xFIP suggests that he’s been somewhat unlucky and could see improved results. He'll likely pitch around 5.8 innings, projecting to allow 2.2 earned runs while striking out 6.3 batters but also giving up 4.6 hits and 1.7 walks on average, which could be problematic.

On the flip side, Noah Cameron, the Royals’ projected starter, has shown excellent form with a 1.91 ERA and a 2-2 record. However, his xFIP indicates a potential regression in performance. Cameron projects for 5.1 innings, with 2.7 earned runs, 3.8 strikeouts, and 5.3 hits allowed.

Both teams struggle with power; the Padres rank 27th in home runs, while the Royals are 29th. With a game total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup could hinge on which offense can capitalize on the opposing pitcher’s weaknesses. Given the Padres' strong bullpen, rated as the 3rd best in MLB, they may hold a slight edge in this contest, positioning themselves as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -165.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Noah Cameron was in good form in his last start and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Salvador Perez has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 13.8% seasonal rate to 21.7% in the past 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Kansas City Royals have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #9 HR venue in the majors today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

There has been a decrease in Jose Iglesias's average exit velocity this season, from 85.8 mph last year to 83.2 mph now

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 66 games (+25.45 Units / 34% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.35 Units / 49% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.88, San Diego Padres 4.38

• Date: June 21, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Noah Cameron - Royals
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

Get daily MLB picks here.