Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres Pick – 6/20/2025

The San Diego Padres host the Kansas City Royals on June 20, 2025, in the first game of their interleague series. San Diego currently sits with a record of 40-34, showing above-average performance this season, while Kansas City is at 37-38, reflecting an average season thus far. The matchup gains additional intrigue as the Padres' Nick Pivetta, who boasts an impressive 7-2 record and a stellar 3.40 ERA, takes the mound against the Royals' Michael Lorenzen, who has struggled with a 4-7 record and a 4.91 ERA.

Pivetta has been rated as the 53rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, while Lorenzen's performance places him among the lower tiers, indicating a significant disparity in pitching effectiveness. The projections suggest that Pivetta will average 5.7 innings pitched today, allowing 2.4 earned runs, while Lorenzen is expected to pitch slightly less, averaging 5.5 innings with 2.9 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Padres rank 20th in MLB and have been inconsistent, particularly in power, ranking 27th in home runs. The Royals are facing similar issues, holding the 27th position in overall offensive ranking and the 29th in home runs as well. Both teams' recent offensive struggles could make this a low-scoring affair, especially with the Game Total set at 7.5 runs.

With a strong bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB, the Padres have the edge in this matchup, especially considering their heavy favorite status with a moneyline of -180. This could be a critical game for San Diego to build momentum as they look to climb higher in the standings.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Lorenzen is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Typically, bats like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Nick Pivetta.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Kansas City Royals have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Nick Pivetta has gone to his curveball 5.4% more often this season (21.9%) than he did last year (16.5%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games at home (+8.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 63 games (+24.70 Units / 34% ROI)
• Nick Pivetta has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.90 Units / 63% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.87, San Diego Padres 4.54

• Date: June 20, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres

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