Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Picks 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alec Marsh - Royals
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on September 13, 2024, both teams are riding unique storylines. The Pirates sit at 70-76 this season and are mired in a below-average performance, while the Royals, at 80-67, have enjoyed an above-average year and are continuing to push for Wild Card positioning.

Pittsburgh's entering this series on a four-game winning streak, while the Royals suffered a loss in their last outing. This matchup is the first in a series, with both teams eager to make a statement.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start Luis Ortiz, whose 3.26 ERA suggests he's had a strong season, even if his peripheral numbers like a 4.77 xFIP indicate he might have been a bit lucky. Ortiz's average projected performance of 5.4 innings pitched with 2.8 earned runs allowed positions him as a potential challenges for the Royals. However, his low strikeout rate of 18.5% may not play to his advantage against a Royals lineup that ranks 2nd in the fewest strikeouts in MLB.

Alec Marsh counters for Kansas City, with a 4.66 ERA that has kept him in the average range. His tendency for high fly balls could create opportunities for the Pirates, but given that Pittsburgh ranks 27th in offense, it’s unclear how much damage they can inflict.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Pirates have a projected win probability of 52%, above their current moneyline odds that suggest a tighter contest. The projections indicate an average game total of 8.5 runs, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the offensive output from both sides. With key hitters like Andrew McCutchen and Salvador Perez having solid recent performances, this could shape up to be an intriguing matchup in Pittsburgh.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Alec Marsh is projected to throw 81 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Maikel Garcia is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today, Salvador Perez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.5% rate (93rd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Luis L. Ortiz's cut-fastball rate has spiked by 20.5% from last season to this one (0.3% to 20.8%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Oneil Cruz has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.3-mph to 100-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Billy Cook, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 112 games (+16.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 82 of their last 147 games (+6.79 Units / 3% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 24 away games (+6.85 Units / 28% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.9 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.82

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