Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/20/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: June 20, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The Oakland Athletics are set to host the Kansas City Royals on June 20, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum in the third game of their series. Despite their struggles this season, the Athletics managed to secure a convincing 5-1 win against the Royals yesterday. This victory was particularly surprising, given that they entered the game as heavy underdogs with a +160 Moneyline.

The Athletics, currently 28-48 and enduring a tough season, will start right-handed pitcher Mitch Spence. Spence, ranked as the 199th best starting pitcher out of roughly 350 by advanced-stat Power Rankings, has shown moments of potential with a 3.95 ERA and a favorable 3.35 FIP, suggesting some bad luck. Although he has a moderate Win/Loss record of 4-3, he has struggled to keep runners off the bases, projecting to allow 5.6 hits and 1.2 walks on average. He will face a Royals offense that ranks 13th in MLB and excels in avoiding strikeouts, putting additional pressure on Spence's low 18.8 K% this season.

Kansas City's above-average season record of 41-34 sees them sending Seth Lugo to the mound. Lugo, with an impressive 10-2 record and a stellar 2.40 ERA, has benefited from some favorable circumstances, as indicated by his higher 3.93 xFIP. He projects to give up 2.6 earned runs and pitch 6.1 innings on average, which bodes well against a struggling Athletics offense ranked 27th in MLB. However, the Royals' bullpen, rated 25th by advanced-stat Power Rankings, could pose a risk late in the game, especially if Lugo cannot go deep.

Offensively, Oakland's lineup has shown sporadic power, ranking 5th in team home runs, despite their low overall team batting average at 28th. JJ Bleday has been the standout performer, boasting a .810 OPS for the season and an impressive .417 batting average over the past week. For the Royals, Bobby Witt Jr. continues his stellar season with a .323 batting average and 11 home runs, adding pressure on Oakland’s pitchers.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, foresees a closer matchup than the betting odds suggest. With the Athletics projected to have a 47% win probability, there might be value in betting on this underdog. The projections peg Oakland to score 3.95 runs and Kansas City to score 4.42 runs, indicating a tight contest. Given the dynamics at play and the Athletics' unexpected win yesterday, this game promises an intriguing clash despite the teams' contrasting seasons.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Compared to the average starter, Seth Lugo has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 5.4 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Nelson Velazquez has big-time HR ability (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (30.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Mitch Spence struggles to strike batters out (11th percentile K%) — great news for Velazquez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Bobby Witt Jr. has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 10th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Mitch Spence must realize this, because he has used his secondary offerings a lot this year: 93.2% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Brent Rooker has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 95.1-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Zack Gelof, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Max Schuemann, Shea Langeliers, Lawrence Butler).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games (+5.30 Units / 8% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 28 games (+11.75 Units / 38% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.42 vs Oakland Athletics 3.95

Get daily MLB picks here.