Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/19/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: June 19, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Luis Medina - Athletics

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics gear up for their second game of the series on June 19, 2024, the contrast between the two teams couldn't be starker. The Royals, sitting at 41-32, are enjoying a solid season, while the Athletics, at 26-48, are struggling mightily. The game will take place at Oakland Coliseum, and despite the Athletics' home-field advantage, they face an uphill battle.

On the mound, Kansas City will start Cole Ragans, who has been nothing short of exceptional this season. With a 3.14 ERA and a 2.63 FIP, Ragans ranks as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. His high strikeout rate (29.1%) could spell trouble for an Athletics offense that ranks 2nd in most strikeouts. Ragans is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing just 1.9 earned runs while striking out 7.3 batters.

Oakland counters with Luis Medina, who has had a rough go this season with a 5.87 ERA. However, his 3.42 xERA suggests he's been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Medina's peripherals, like his 4.26 FIP, also indicate that his current ERA might not tell the whole story. Despite these indicators, Medina's low strikeout rate (14.5%) against a Royals lineup that ranks 4th in least strikeouts could pose a significant challenge.

Offensively, the Athletics have struggled, ranking 28th in MLB. They do, however, have a knack for hitting home runs, sitting 5th in that category. JJ Bleday has been a bright spot for Oakland recently, hitting .450 with a 1.172 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Kansas City's offense is more balanced, ranking 14th overall and 9th in team batting average. MJ Melendez has been hot, hitting .400 with a 1.155 OPS over the last seven games.

Betting odds favor the Royals significantly, with a moneyline of -170, implying a 61% win probability. The Athletics are underdogs at +150, with an implied win probability of 39%. Given the pitching matchup and current form, Kansas City looks poised to take this one, but baseball often defies expectations.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans's higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (42.1 compared to 37.1% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Adam Frazier's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.2-mph figure last year has dropped off to 84-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

As a team, Kansas City Royals bats have struggled as far as hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), rating worst in the game.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Among all starters, Luis Medina's fastball velocity of 94.4 mph ranks in the 78th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (14.5) may lead us to conclude that Miguel Andujar has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 20.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen profiles as the 8th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.60 Units / 39% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.31 vs Oakland Athletics 3.25

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