Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Prediction – 4/14/2025

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees will host the Kansas City Royals on April 14, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. Currently, the Yankees are sitting at 8-7, enjoying an above-average start to the season, while the Royals are slightly behind with an 8-8 record, showing an average performance thus far. The Yankees' last outing was a tight 5-4 loss, while the Royals managed a win against a rival, taking their last game 4-2.

On the mound, the Yankees are projected to start Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled early this season, holding a Win/Loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 7.71. Despite being ranked as the 296th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, advanced metrics suggest he may rebound, as his 4.15 xFIP indicates he’s been somewhat unlucky. Carrasco's projections are concerning, as he is expected to pitch only 4.9 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs while striking out just 3.7 batters.

In contrast, the Royals will send Seth Lugo to the mound. Lugo's 1-1 record and impressive 3.24 ERA highlight his potential as an average pitcher this season, although projections suggest he may be due for a downturn. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings while allowing 3.1 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, showcasing exceptional power with the 2nd most home runs. Meanwhile, the Royals are struggling, ranking 29th in overall offense and dead last in home runs. With the Yankees favored at -145, their strong bats could have a significant impact on the final outcome. The Game Total sits at a high 9.0 runs, suggesting an expectation of scoring, heavily favoring the Yankees' offensive prowess.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo is an extreme groundball pitcher (42.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #3 HR venue among all major league parks — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Maikel Garcia has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.9-mph average to last year's 90.4-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen projects as the 4th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Carrasco has utilized his slider 6.6% more often this season (34%) than he did last year (27.4%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme flyball batters like Aaron Judge are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Seth Lugo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Anthony Volpe hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.85 Units / 29% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 23% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5.06, New York Yankees 5.03

• Date: April 14, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Carlos Carrasco - Yankees

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