Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/14/2024

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets Overview

• Date: April 14, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Jose Butto - Mets
• Run Line: Royals -1.5 130, Mets 1.5 -150
• Money Line: Royals -130, Mets 110
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 100

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 54%
• New York Mets - 46%

Projected Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 51.48%
• New York Mets - 48.52%

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets Game Preview & Prediction

In an Interleague matchup, the New York Mets will play host to the Kansas City Royals at Citi Field on April 14, 2024. The Mets are having a tough season with a 6-8 record, while the Royals are enjoying success with a 10-5 record. This will be the third game in the series between these two teams.

On the mound, the Mets are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Butto, who has had a solid season so far. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Butto ranks as the #296 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him one of the worst in the league. In his one start this year, Butto has delivered a strong performance, showcasing an excellent 1.50 ERA. However, his 3.71 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward.

Opposing Butto will be left-handed pitcher Cole Ragans of the Royals. Ragans has been exceptional this season, ranking as the #22 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings. In three starts, he has posted an impressive 2.60 ERA, but his 3.28 xFIP indicates that he may regress slightly in future outings.

Looking at the offensive side of the game, the Mets have been average this season, ranking 15th in MLB. Their best hitter, Pete Alonso, has been a standout player, recording 12 runs, 10 RBIs, and 6 home runs with a batting average of .281 and an OPS of .963. However, the team's overall performance in terms of batting average and home runs ranks below average in the league.

On the other hand, the Royals have a strong offense, ranking 10th in MLB. Their best hitter, Bobby Witt Jr., has been impressive, scoring 17 runs, recording 8 RBIs, and hitting 4 home runs with a batting average of .339 and an OPS of 1.107. The team's stolen base ranking is particularly noteworthy, as they rank 4th in MLB.

In terms of pitching matchups, Butto's high groundball rate may work in favor of the Royals, as they have a relatively low home run total this season. Additionally, Butto's high walk rate may be less of a concern against the Royals, who are not known for drawing walks. On the other hand, Ragans' strong strikeout ability may be neutralized by the Mets' low strikeout rate, giving the Mets an advantage.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Royals have a slight edge with a 51% win probability, while the Mets have a 49% chance of winning. The current moneyline odds also suggest a close game, with the Mets at +110 and the Royals at -130, indicating a tight matchup.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed batters today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot recently, bashing 4 long-balls over the last 14 days.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Salvador Perez (the Royals's expected catcher in today's game) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Out of every team in action today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Royals vs Mets Prediction: Royals 4.86 - Mets 4.42

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.