Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction & Picks 8/14/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: August 14, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Louie Varland - Twins

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face off against the Minnesota Twins on August 14, 2024, this matchup carries significant weight in the American League Central. The Twins currently hold a record of 67-52, showcasing a strong season, while the Royals sit just behind at 65-55, indicating an above-average performance. Following a decisive victory where the Twins bested the Royals 13-3 in their previous game, momentum seems to favor the home team.

The Twins are projected to start Louie Varland, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season with a 0-4 record and a concerning ERA of 6.46. Despite a higher xFIP of 4.24, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky, Varland has been inconsistent, averaging 5.2 innings pitched and allowing 2.9 earned runs, with a troubling average of 5.6 hits allowed per game. On the other hand, the Royals will counter with Cole Ragans, a left-handed pitcher enjoying a solid season with a 9-7 record and an impressive ERA of 3.27. Ragans' recent form has been strong, having pitched well in his last start, going 6 innings with just 1 earned run, 7 strikeouts, and 6 hits allowed.

The Twins' offense ranks as the 6th best in MLB, bolstered by Willi Castro, who has been a standout performer this season. However, they face a Royals lineup that, despite ranking 12th overall, has seen Bobby Witt Jr. shine. Witt has been a force recently, hitting .389 over the past week and contributing significantly to the Royals’ offense.

Interestingly, projections suggest the Royals will have the edge in this matchup, with their expected runs set at 5.10 compared to the Twins' 4.17. This indicates the potential for a close game, making it worth keeping an eye on how Varland handles the Royals' lineup, especially given their low strikeout rate. With the stakes high and the teams closely matched, this game is poised to be an exciting contest.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 8 opposite-handed batters in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Minnesota's 2nd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Michael Massey, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Today, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.1% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Max Kepler is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected lineup today (.310 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .326 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 52 games (+14.60 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+13.70 Units / 35% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5.1 vs Minnesota Twins 4.17

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