Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction & Picks 8/13/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: August 13, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Randy Dobnak - Twins

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on August 13, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race within the American League Central. The Twins currently hold a record of 66-52, while the Royals are slightly behind at 65-54. This matchup is crucial as both teams vie for a stronger position in the standings.

In their last encounter on August 12, the Twins emerged victorious with an 8-3 win, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks 6th in MLB. Leading the charge for Minnesota has been Willi Castro, who has been a standout performer this season. On the other hand, the Royals, despite their solid record, need to bounce back after this defeat.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Randy Dobnak, who has struggled this year with a 5.87 ERA and has not yet started a game in 2024. His low strikeout rate of 18.9% could pose a challenge against a Royals offense that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone in MLB. Dobnak's high walk rate of 13.5% may also play into the Royals' hands, as they typically show good plate discipline.

Conversely, Seth Lugo will take the hill for Kansas City. With a solid 2.72 ERA and a 13-6 record, Lugo has been a reliable option this season. However, his recent performance saw him allowing 4 earned runs in just 5 innings in his last start on August 6. The projections suggest that while Lugo may be facing a tough Twins lineup, he still has the upper hand against Dobnak.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest, as both teams have an implied team total of 4.25 runs. The Twins' offense, combined with the projections indicating they could score around 4.99 runs, suggests they may have the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo's 91.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.1-mph decline from last season's 92.8-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.9-mph average to last season's 90.7-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Daniel Matthews has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 10.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Despite posting a .357 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jose Miranda has had some very good luck given the .048 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .309.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Minnesota Twins in this game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .310, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .325 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 59 games (+13.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+13.30 Units / 43% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.81 vs Minnesota Twins 4.7

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