Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 5/23/2025

On May 23, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Kansas City Royals at Target Field in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark, with the Twins sitting at 27-22 and the Royals slightly better at 28-23. Given their close records, this matchup is crucial for both teams as they compete for positioning within the American League Central.

The Twins are favored in this game, boasting a strong bullpen ranked 4th in MLB. Their starting pitcher, Pablo Lopez, has been impressive this season, holding a 2.40 ERA and a solid Win/Loss record of 4-2 over 8 starts. The advanced-stat Power Rankings place him as the 21st best starting pitcher, indicating he has been a reliable option for the Twins. However, he also faces a challenging Royals lineup that strikes out less than most teams, potentially neutralizing his high strikeout ability (27.7 K%).

On the other hand, Noah Cameron, projected to start for the Royals, has shown flashes of brilliance with a remarkable 0.71 ERA, albeit over just 2 starts. His high walk rate (10.9 BB%) could be problematic against a Twins offense that is not particularly patient at the plate, ranking 6th in least walks drawn.

Both offenses have had their struggles this season, with the Twins ranking 19th overall and the Royals at 26th. The Royals have the added burden of being last in home runs, which puts extra pressure on their scoring ability. The low Game Total of 7.5 runs reflects these offensive challenges.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Noah Cameron is projected to throw 84 pitches in today's matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Michael Massey has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (51% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Cavan Biggio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 10th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez has been lucky this year, putting up a 2.40 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.69 — a 1.29 disparity.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Willi Castro's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 90.6-mph mark last year has fallen to 86.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The 4th-weakest projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Minnesota Twins.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games (+13.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 33 games (+16.90 Units / 44% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.65 Units / 59% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.08, Minnesota Twins 4.19

• Date: May 23, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Noah Cameron - Royals
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.