Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 8/8/2025
The Minnesota Twins will host the Kansas City Royals at Target Field on Friday night in an American League Central showdown. These teams are both just under the .500 mark for the season and will look to get a much-needed win here. The Twins are a slight favorite at home in a game that features a very good starting pitching matchup. Here, I break down this AL Central matchup and give you my Royals vs Twins prediction.
Our Royals vs Twins Pick
- Pick: Royals Moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
- Date & Time: Friday, August 8, 2025, 8:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Seth Lugo (8‑5, 3.06 ERA) vs Joe Ryan (10‑5, 2.83 ERA)
- Stadium: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: MNNT and FDSKC
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Seth Lugo enters this matchup with an 8‑5 record and a 3.06 ERA over 123.1 innings. He has an 0‑3 record and 4.18 ERA against AL Central foes this season. Joe Ryan has a 10‑5 record and a 2.83 ERA over 127.1 innings. Both pitchers are dependable and are more than capable of throwing a gem that would give their team the upper hand in this contest.
Key Players
Salvador Pérez leads Kansas City with 20 homers and Vinnie Pasquantino leads them with 68 RBI. Minnesota’s Byron Buxton leads his squad with 23 home runs, a .282 batting average, and 59 RBI.
Recent Team Streaks
- Kansas City is 2-3 over its last five games but defeated the Boston Red Sox in their last game.
- The Twins have won two games in a row and three of their last four.
- The Royals have won 6 of Lugo’s last 7 starts.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Pérez | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
| Byron Buxton | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Seth Lugo | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Royals lead the season series 4-3 over the Twins.
- Minnesota has scored 15 runs over their last two games.
- Kansas City is 29-30 on the road this season.
- Minnesota is 30-24 at home in 2025.
Royals vs Twins Model Projection
Score Projection: Royals 5 – Twins 4
Win Probability: Royals 52%, Twins 48%
Final Thoughts
My projections make this game close to a toss-up. Both starting pitchers are fantastic and will be expected to keep their teams competitive in this game. This contest will come down to which team can generate a couple of moments of timely hitting in big spots. I think that team will be the Royals. I will take Kansas City as a slight underdog on the road in a game that could go either way.
