Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 5/24/2025

As the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals meet on May 24, 2025, both teams are vying for crucial wins in the competitive American League Central. The Twins, holding a record of 28-22, are off to a solid start this season. Meanwhile, the Royals are just behind at 28-24, showcasing an above-average performance. In their last matchup, the Twins managed to edge out the Royals, maintaining their momentum.

The Twins will be sending Zebby Matthews to the mound, who has had a rough start this season. With an ERA of 12.00 in just one game, Matthews has struggled to find his rhythm. However, his xFIP of 3.71 suggests he may have been unlucky, hinting at the potential for improvement. His high strikeout rate of 29.4% could be an advantage against a Royals lineup that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone offense in MLB.

On the other hand, the Royals will counter with Michael Wacha, who’s been effective this season, posting an impressive 2.86 ERA over 10 starts. His xFIP at 4.13 indicates he might be due for a downturn, but Wacha’s solid track record will pose a challenge for the Twins' offense, which ranks 20th overall.

Despite their offensive shortcomings, the projections suggest a close game, with the Twins' moneyline set at -125 and the Royals at +105. The Twins’ bullpen is rated 3rd best in MLB, providing them with a significant edge if the game is tight late. Overall, with the Twins looking to build on their current form and the potential for Matthews to turn his season around, this matchup could be pivotal as both teams aim to solidify their positions in the standings.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's 92.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.1-mph decline from last season's 93.6-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Kyle Isbel has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the 7th-best hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Given that groundball pitchers have a notable edge over groundball batters, Zebby Matthews and his 34.2% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in today's outing being matched up with 3 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In terms of his home runs, Willi Castro has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His 11.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.5.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Rating 6th-least steep in the game this year, Minnesota Twins hitters jointly have notched a 11.5° launch angle (an advanced standard to study the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games (+13.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 33 games (+16.90 Units / 44% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+11.50 Units / 144% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.04, Minnesota Twins 3.9

• Date: May 24, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Zebby Matthews - Twins

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