Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 7/18/2025

The Kansas City Royals hit the road Friday to face the Miami Marlins in the first game for both teams after the All-Star break. Both teams are just below the .500 mark for the year and will look to start their turnarounds with a win here. In this preview, you will find out everything you need to know before betting on this game. You will also find my Royals vs Marlins prediction for this interleague matchup in Miami.

Our Royals vs Marlins Pick

  • Pick: Royals moneyline
  • Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Kansas City Royals at Miami Marlins
  • Date & Time: Friday, July 18, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Starting Pitchers: Undecided vs Sandy Alcantara
  • Stadium: loanDepot park, Miami, FL
  • Broadcast: FDSFL & FDSKC + SiriusXM

Key Storylines

Pitching form

A big question going into this game is who the starting pitcher will be for the Royals. They have yet to formally select a pitcher for this game despite having time to reset their rotation after the All-Star break. Sandy Alcantara has struggled this season. He is 4-9 on the year and his 7.22 ERA has been a major disappointment for the Marlins in 2025.

Bullpen usage

This game could come down to which bullpen performs best given the starting pitching situation on both sides. If that is the case, the Royals will have an advantage. Kansas City ranks 9th in the league in bullpen ERA this year. Miami is 19th in that category.

Recent team streaks

Kansas City wrapped up the first half of their season by going 7–3 in their last 10 games. Miami has been inconsistent but they did manage to win two straight games before the break against the Baltimore Orioles.

Best Player Props

PlayerProp
Bobby Witt Jr.1+ Home runs
Vinnie Pasquantino1+ Home runs
Seth LugoOver 5.5 Strikeouts
Kyle StowersOver 1.5 Total bases
  • This is the first game between these teams this year. They are scheduled to play just three times in 2025.
  • The Royals are 28-30 in night games this season. Miami is 21-32 in games held at night.
  • The Marlins have covered the runline in 59% of their games this season. That is the highest percentage in baseball.
  • Royals games have gone under the total 61.5% of the time. That is the highest under percentage in the sport.

Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins Model Projection

  • Score Projection: Royals 5 – Marlins 4
  • Win Probability: Royals 54%, Marlins 46%

Final Thoughts

This is a tight game as far as I’m concerned. If you’re betting on it, I would suggest waiting until you know who the Royals are starting on the mound. But as long as the Royals don’t go with a complete unknown, they should be able to win this game over the Marlins. I don’t trust Sandy Alcantara at all right now and I will continue to fade him until he gives me a reason to do otherwise.


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Home MLB Picks Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 7/18/2025