Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction & Picks 6/15/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Dodgers and Royals gear up for their second game of the series on June 15, 2024, the outlook is promising for the Dodgers, who boast a 43-28 record. With the Royals close behind at 40-31, this interleague matchup at Dodger Stadium showcases two teams having strong seasons. The Dodgers, in particular, have been dominant, and they look to extend their lead with elite right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound.

Yamamoto, who holds a stellar 3.00 ERA and a 6-2 Win/Loss record over 13 starts, is ranked the 10th best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Expected to pitch an average of 6.1 innings while allowing just 2.4 earned runs, Yamamoto brings an edge, although he might struggle against a Royals offense that strikes out the third least in MLB.

On the other side, the Royals are set to start Seth Lugo, whose impressive 9-2 record and 2.36 ERA this season might be masking some underlying issues. Lugo's xFIP of 3.93 suggests he's been somewhat fortunate, and projections indicate he could allow 3.6 earned runs over an average of 5.3 innings pitched. Given the Dodgers' explosive offense, ranked 1st in MLB, this could be a tough outing for Lugo.

The Dodgers lead multiple offensive categories, including the 1st in overall offense and 3rd in both batting average and home runs. Meanwhile, the Royals' offense is also notable, ranked 10th, and they excel in stolen bases (6th) and batting average (7th). The power disparity, however, favors the Dodgers significantly.

Recent performances also highlight key players, with the Dodgers' Teoscar Hernandez, boasting a 1.275 OPS over the last week, and the Royals' Kyle Isbel, hitting .389 with an impressive .984 OPS.

Given these dynamics, the Dodgers are projected as massive favorites with a 70% win probability. The betting market, however, places their implied win probability at 64%, suggesting potential value in backing the Dodgers. The projections estimate the Dodgers scoring nearly six runs, indicating a potent offensive display against a Royals team likely facing an uphill battle.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 5.4 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Adam Frazier is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

In today's game, Bobby Witt Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.6% rate (91st percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has had some very good luck with his strikeouts this year, notching a 10.38 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.90 — a 0.48 K/9 difference.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

This season, there has been a decline in Freddie Freeman's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.69 ft/sec last year to 26.11 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Andy Pages, Cavan Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+5.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Garrett Hampson has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.14 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 6.02

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