Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick & Preview – 6/14/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: June 14, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers (42-27) are set to host the Kansas City Royals (40-30) at Dodger Stadium on June 14, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Dodgers are having a stellar season, boasting the best offense in MLB, and they’ll be looking to extend their winning ways against the Royals, who are also enjoying a good season but face a tougher challenge on the road.

Gavin Stone, a right-hander, gets the start for the Dodgers. While his 2.93 ERA is excellent, his 3.93 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat lucky this season, indicating potential for regression. Despite starting 12 games this year, Stone is only ranked 132nd among MLB starting pitchers. His projected 5.4 innings pitched and average 2.6 earned runs allowed today reflect a middling expectation. Notably, Stone’s low strikeout rate (18.9%) could be exploited by a Royals offense that ranks 3rd in fewest strikeouts.

On the other side, the Royals will counter with lefty Cole Ragans. Ragans, despite his pedestrian 4-4 win/loss record, boasts a solid 3.08 ERA. However, his underlying 2.30 FIP indicates he has been unlucky and might perform even better going forward. Ranked as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB, Ragans is elite and could pose a significant challenge to the Dodgers’ high-powered offense. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Ragans to pitch 4.5 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs today, which is slightly below average.

The Dodgers’ offense, bolstered by recent hot streaks from players like Teoscar Hernandez, who has a .368 batting average and a 1.560 OPS over the last week, should give them an edge. Hernandez’s impressive recent performance includes 4 home runs and 11 RBIs in just 5 games.

The Royals’ offense is no slouch either, ranking 9th in MLB. Bobby Witt Jr. has been particularly hot, hitting .433 with a 1.052 OPS over the last 7 games. However, Kansas City’s bullpen, ranked 23rd, could be a weak link, especially against a Dodgers lineup that leads MLB in offensive metrics.

With a 58% implied win probability and a powerful offense, the Dodgers are favorites to take the first game of this series. Betting markets reflect this, with the Dodgers sitting at -150 on the moneyline. Expect a competitive game, but the home-field advantage and offensive firepower make Los Angeles the team to watch.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (42.7 vs. 37.1% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Salvador Perez's quickness has gotten better this year. His 24.24 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.74 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the Kansas City Royals offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

In his last game started, Gavin Stone performed well and allowed 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.298) suggests that Miguel Rojas has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .243 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen projects as the 9th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 games (+7.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.52 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.14

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