Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/29/2024

• Date: August 29, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Royals
  • Hunter Brown - Astros

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face off against the Houston Astros on August 29, 2024, both teams come into this game with solid, albeit different, seasons. The Royals currently sit at 75-59, enjoying a strong campaign, while the Astros are slightly behind at 71-62, having an above-average year. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and both teams will be looking to set the tone early.

In their last outing, the Astros blew out the Philadelphia Phillies, while the Kansas City Royals lost to the Cleveland Guardians. The Astros will send Hunter Brown to the mound, who has been impressive this season, holding a Win/Loss record of 11-7 and an ERA of 3.72. He ranks as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB based on advanced metrics, highlighting his capability to keep games competitive. On the other side, Brady Singer will take the hill for Kansas City. Singer, with a 9-9 record and a stellar 3.38 ERA, has been a reliable arm but may be due for some regression given his elevated xERA of 4.46.

Offensively, the Astros rank 2nd in batting average, proving their ability to put runs on the board, while the Royals rank 12th. Over the past week, Houston's Yordan Alvarez has been a standout performer, boasting a .412 batting average and a remarkable 1.415 OPS. This will be key as the Astros look to exploit Singer's weaknesses, particularly given his low walk rate facing an Astros lineup that is also disciplined at the plate.

As for betting, the projections favor the Astros with a high implied team total of 4.35 runs, suggesting they could capitalize on their home-field advantage. Houston's bullpen is also ranked 11th, providing an extra layer of support should the game hinge on late innings. With a game total set at 8.0 runs, it promises to be a competitive matchup in Houston.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer has used his sinker 9.6% less often this season (41.5%) than he did last season (51.1%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Maikel Garcia is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Kansas City's 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in Major League Baseball: #4 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown's 95.3-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 87th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Yordan Alvarez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.9-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 93.1-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 84 games (+15.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 73 of their last 129 games (+9.59 Units / 6% ROI)
• Hunter Brown has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.35 Units / 60% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.05 vs Houston Astros 4.41

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