Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction & Picks 8/30/2024

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on August 30, 2024, both teams find themselves in a competitive series, with the Astros currently holding a record of 72-62 and the Royals at 75-60. The Astros are not in contention for their division but remain in the Wild Card race, while the Royals are having a strong season. In their previous matchup, the Astros beat the Royals at home and will look to do the same here.

On the mound, the Astros will start Framber Valdez, who has been a standout with a 13-6 record and a solid 3.27 ERA, ranking him as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Valdez has been effective, projected to pitch 6.3 innings and allow just 2.4 earned runs today, although he does have concerning numbers with walks and hits allowed. Conversely, Seth Lugo of the Royals has a 14-8 record and a slightly better ERA of 3.19, but his xFIP of 3.95 suggests he may not sustain this level of performance moving forward.

Offensively, the Astros rank 10th in MLB, highlighted by their 2nd best team batting average. Yordan Alvarez has been particularly hot, leading the team over the last week with a .500 batting average and three home runs. The Royals, while boasting a respectable 12th best offense, have struggled with power, ranking 19th in home runs.

With the Astros favored at -155 and an implied team total of 4.39 runs, they look to bounce back and capitalize on Valdez's elite pitching against a Royals lineup that, while solid, may struggle against a pitcher of his caliber.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 5.5 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball batters like Salvador Perez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Kansas City Royals have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (MJ Melendez, Paul DeJong, Tyler Gentry).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez has gone to his curveball 5.8% more often this year (30.2%) than he did last year (24.4%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Ben Gamel has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (93% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Houston Astros batters collectively grade out 23rd- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 79 games (+15.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+10.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 50 games (+32.90 Units / 66% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.51 vs Houston Astros 4.65

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