Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction – 5/14/2025

On May 14, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros in the third game of their series. The Astros, currently with a record of 21-20, are looking to build on a win in their previous game against the Royals. Meanwhile, Kansas City stands at 25-19, enjoying a solid season thus far.

The matchup pits left-handed pitcher Colton Gordon against right-hander Michael Lorenzen. Gordon ranks as the 193rd best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced stats, which indicates he has struggled this season. He projects to pitch around 4.9 innings while allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs, with a concerning average of 4.9 hits and 1.4 walks allowed. In contrast, Lorenzen, despite being labeled a bad pitcher by MLB standards, has shown some resilience this season with an ERA of 3.57. He is expected to pitch about 5.5 innings and allow 3.0 earned runs, which, while below average, is still an improvement over Gordon's projections.

Offensively, the Astros rank 14th overall but struggle with power, sitting 25th in home runs. The Royals, on the other hand, rank 25th offensively but are finding ways to win games. The Astros enter this game as favorites, with a moneyline of -140, indicating a high implied team total of 4.27 runs. Given the projected struggles of Colton Gordon and the average performance of the Royals' lineup, this could be another opportunity for Houston to pick up a win in this series.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Michael Lorenzen (34.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in Houston's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme flyball bats like Salvador Perez tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Colton Gordon.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Kansas City Royals with a 19.6% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

The Kansas City Royals have 7 hitters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Colton Gordon in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In the last 14 days, Jose Altuve's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros' bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+8.47 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 37 games (+17.10 Units / 40% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.86, Houston Astros 4.67

• Date: May 14, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals
  • Colton Gordon - Astros

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