Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Pick – 5/12/2025

The Houston Astros will host the Kansas City Royals on May 12, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Astros enter this game with a record of 20-19, while the Royals hold a better 24-18 mark, reflecting a solid season for Kansas City. Despite the Astros' average performance thus far, they are projected to have a slight advantage in this contest, with a moneyline set at -120, indicating a close game.

In their last outing, the Astros got an impressive 6-0 win over the Cincinnati Reds. This offensive spark could be crucial against Royals' starter Michael Wacha, who has a 2-4 record but an excellent ERA of 2.98. However, Wacha's 4.21 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression.

On the other side, Astros' Ryan Gusto, despite being ranked as the 161st best starting pitcher in MLB, has a respectable 2.93 ERA. Gusto has benefited from some luck this season, as indicated by his higher xFIP of 3.87. Projected to pitch around 4.7 innings, he may face challenges against a Royals offense that ranks 25th in MLB overall but is also low on power with just 27 home runs this season.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the projections suggest a moderately high-scoring affair. The Astros' bullpen is ranked 18th in MLB, which aligns with their average performance, while the Royals' bullpen ranks 22nd. This matchup could hinge on whether Gusto can limit the Royals' opportunities and how well Wacha can navigate a lineup that has shown improvement in recent games.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's 92.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1-mph drop off from last season's 93.6-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball bats like Salvador Perez are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Gusto.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Given that groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Ryan Gusto (37.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 3 GB hitters in the opposition's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In the past week, Christian Walker's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.5% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.6% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.55 Units / 36% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.59, Houston Astros 4.26

• Date: May 12, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Ryan Gusto - Astros

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