Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/3/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals
  • Undecided - Tigers

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals visit Comerica Park to face the Detroit Tigers on August 3, 2024, this American League Central matchup carries significant weight. The Royals currently hold a strong 62-49 record, placing them well within playoff contention, while the Tigers sit at 52-59, struggling through a below-average season. In their most recent clash on August 2, the Tigers suffered a disappointing 9-2 defeat to the Royals, further highlighting the gap between these two teams.

The Tigers have yet to decide on a starting pitcher for this game. Who they choose will have a huge impact on who comes out on top of this contest, as the Tigers need all the help they can get against a team that is playing better baseball than they are right now.

On the other side, Kansas City will counter with Michael Lorenzen, who has started 18 games this season and holds a 5-6 record. While Lorenzen’s ERA of 3.81 looks solid, his 4.97 xFIP suggests he, too, has been somewhat fortunate this year. Lorenzen is right-handed and his experience and ability to pitch deeper into games—averaging 5.3 innings—could give the Royals an edge.

The projections indicate a close contest, with the Tigers' offense ranking a dismal 27th overall this season, while the Royals' offense sits at a more respectable 12th. The Royals’ best hitter, Bobby Witt Jr., has been on fire, posting a .458 batting average over the last week. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ best recent performer, Justyn-Henry Malloy, has struggled to make a significant impact.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Out of all SPs, Michael Lorenzen's fastball spin rate of 2377 rpm grades out in the 76th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Michael Massey has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 8.4% seasonal rate to 14.8% in the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Kansas City Royals (20.9 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone group of batters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Gio Urshela has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 89.6-mph average to last year's 87.4-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Detroit's 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in MLB: #21 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 83 games (+10.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 63 of their last 107 games (+12.24 Units / 8% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 25 games (+13.00 Units / 52% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5.29 vs Detroit Tigers 4.72

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