Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 4/20/2025

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers will host the Kansas City Royals on April 20, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a critical matchup in the American League Central. The Tigers, currently sitting at 13-8, are enjoying a strong season, while the Royals languish at 8-14, struggling to find their footing. Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, ranked as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, is set to take the mound against Kansas City’s Michael Wacha, who has had a rough start with a 0-3 record this season.

In their previous matchup, the Tigers scored a decisive victory, further highlighting the differences in form between these two teams. Skubal, a left-handed pitcher, has been excellent this year with a 2.66 ERA and projects to pitch an average of 6.1 innings while allowing only 1.7 earned runs. On the other hand, Wacha, a right-hander, holds a 4.35 ERA and is projected to allow 2.3 earned runs over 5.6 innings, making him an average option against a potent Tigers offense that ranks 9th overall in MLB.

The projections suggest that the Tigers' offense, despite ranking 14th in home runs, has the capability to capitalize on Wacha’s weaknesses, especially given that they rank 4th in strikeouts, which is typically a vulnerability against low-strikeout pitchers like Wacha. With the Tigers’ bullpen also rated as the 3rd best in MLB, they have the depth to maintain their lead late into the game.

As betting odds indicate a moneyline of -195 for Detroit, the Tigers look not just to win but to assert their dominance over a struggling Royals team, which has the worst overall offense in MLB. With the stakes high, this matchup promises to be a telling contest for both teams.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this year (92.3 mph) below where it was last season (93.6 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Maikel Garcia has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last season's 90.4-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (39.3% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Tarik Skubal (44.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 2 GB hitters in Kansas City's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Typically, hitters like Spencer Torkelson who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Michael Wacha.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Detroit Tigers have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan Kreidler, Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 62% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+14.25 Units / 95% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.29, Detroit Tigers 3.9

• Date: April 20, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

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