Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 4/18/2025

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face off against the Kansas City Royals on April 18, 2025, at Comerica Park, they look to build on a solid start to the season. The Tigers currently hold an 11-8 record, while the Royals struggle at 8-12. In their previous matchup, the Tigers emerged victorious, showcasing their offensive strength against a reeling Royals squad that ranks 29th in MLB offensive efficiency.

Detroit's projected starter, Jackson Jobe, has had a decent season thus far, boasting a 3.00 ERA, although his 4.96 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate. Jobe's high walk rate of 13.3% could be a concern, especially against a Royals lineup that has shown impatience at the plate. He is expected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs, which aligns with his average performance this year.

On the other hand, Kansas City's Cole Ragans is having a breakout season, ranking as the 7th best starter in MLB with a stellar 2.28 ERA. His projections indicate he will pitch around 5.7 innings while allowing just 2.0 earned runs and striking out 7.5 batters. This matchup favors Ragans, particularly against a Tigers offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts.

Despite the odds showing the Tigers as underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and an implied team total of 3.49 runs, their overall team performance and the projections suggest they could pull off an upset. With their bullpen ranked 6th in MLB, the Tigers have the potential to leverage their late-game advantages, making this matchup one to watch closely.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 7 opposite-handed hitters in this matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Kyle Isbel's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 83.9-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 79.4-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be wise to expect better results for the Kansas City Royals offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Kansas City's #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Spencer Torkelson, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• Spencer Torkelson has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+14.20 Units / 158% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.76, Detroit Tigers 3.58

• Date: April 18, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Jackson Jobe - Tigers

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.