Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction & Picks 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On August 27, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians host the Kansas City Royals in a pivotal matchup for both teams. Currently, the Guardians sit at 75-57, while the Royals are just a game behind at 74-58. This series is crucial as both teams aim to solidify their positions in the American League Central, making each game count in the standings.

The Guardians are projected to start Gavin Williams, who has had a rough season with a 2-6 record and a 5.13 ERA. Despite this, his 4.00 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, and he has the potential to improve as the season progresses. Williams’s average projection today of 5.1 innings and 2.3 earned runs could keep the Guardians in a competitive position against a Royals offense that ranks 12th overall in the league.

On the other side, the Royals will send out Michael Lorenzen, who has had a decent season with a 7-6 record and a solid 3.47 ERA. However, his 4.99 xFIP indicates he may have benefited from favorable circumstances. Lorenzen's low strikeout rate (17.8 K%) may play into the Guardians' favor, as they are one of the least strikeout-prone teams in MLB.

The Guardians’ offense ranks 18th overall, but they have shown flashes of brilliance, particularly with players like Daniel Schneemann, who has been their best hitter over the last week. Meanwhile, Salvador Perez has been a standout for the Royals, producing significant runs and power.

With the Guardians favored at -140, they boast an implied team total of 4.54 runs, suggesting confidence in their ability to score against Lorenzen. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive battle ahead in Progressive Field.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Lorenzen's sinker usage has risen by 9.6% from last year to this one (11.8% to 21.4%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Freddy Fermin has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .334 rate is quite a bit higher than his .278 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Michael Massey pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams's 96.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.2-mph jump from last year's 95-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Bo Naylor has big-time power (77th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael Lorenzen is a pitch-to-contact type (25th percentile K%) — great news for Naylor.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Cleveland Guardians (18.7 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 59 games at home (+7.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 34 of his last 47 games (+15.65 Units / 23% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.46 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.9

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