Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction & Picks 6/4/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Triston McKenzie - Guardians

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

In an American League Central matchup, the Cleveland Guardians are set to take on the Kansas City Royals on June 4, 2024, at Progressive Field. The Guardians, with a season record of 39-20, are having a great season, while the Royals are also performing well with a record of 36-25.

The Guardians will have Triston McKenzie on the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has started 11 games this year. McKenzie holds a 2-3 win/loss record with an ERA of 3.77, which is considered good. However, his 5.03 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could potentially perform worse going forward. McKenzie is projected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs and striking out 4.6 batters.

On the other side, the Royals will start Seth Lugo, a right-handed pitcher who has started 12 games this season. Lugo boasts an impressive 9-1 win/loss record with an excellent ERA of 1.72. However, his 3.86 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. Lugo is projected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs and striking out 4.3 batters.

The Guardians' offense ranks as the 11th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average ranking of 14th. However, they have struggled in the home run department, ranking last in the league. On the other hand, their stolen base ranking of 7th suggests they have a good base-running game. The Royals' offense ranks as the 9th best in MLB, with an average team batting average ranking of 19th. They also struggle with home runs, ranking 26th, but excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Guardians have the 2nd best bullpen in MLB, while the Royals' bullpen ranks 24th. This could give the Guardians an advantage in the later innings of the game.

According to the current odds, both teams have an implied win probability of 50%, indicating that this will be a close game. The Guardians have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Royals have the same average implied team total.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo's curveball rate has dropped by 10.7% from last year to this one (29.3% to 18.6%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Nick Loftin has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 27.23 ft/sec to 27.96 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The Kansas City Royals have been the 9th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Among all the teams playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

David Fry has been lucky this year, posting a .470 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .323 — a .147 difference.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen projects as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 46 games (+11.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 games (+7.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+6.55 Units / 11% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.41 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.85

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