Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 4/11/2025

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face off against the Kansas City Royals on April 11, 2025, at Progressive Field, each team enters the game with something to prove. The Guardians are currently sitting at .500 with a 6-6 record, while the Royals hold a slightly better 7-6 mark. Cleveland hopes to build momentum after a solid performance from their bullpen, which ranks 1st in MLB, while Kansas City’s bullpen sits at 25th.

The matchup features two pitchers with contrasting trends. Tanner Bibee, projected to take the mound for the Guardians, has struggled this season with a 6.52 ERA, despite being ranked the 50th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, advanced metrics indicate he may be due for a turnaround, as his xFIP of 5.64 suggests he’s been unlucky. Bibee’s average of 5.5 innings pitched and a projected 2.0 earned runs allowed today may help stabilize his performance.

On the other hand, Kris Bubic of the Royals enters this game with a stellar 0.71 ERA and a perfect 2-0 record, ranking him 62nd among MLB starters. However, the projections indicate he may be overperforming, as his xFIP stands at 2.87, suggesting potential regression. Bubic is projected to pitch 5.3 innings and allow 2.0 earned runs, but he does face a Cleveland offense that ranks 18th in the league, which has been average overall.

With both teams facing off in what is expected to be a low-scoring game—reflected in a Game Total of just 7.0 runs—Cleveland’s strong bullpen could give them the edge, especially considering they are favored with a moneyline of -140. Despite their average offensive performance, the Guardians’ pitching depth might just be the key to securing a victory in this tightly contested matchup.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Kris Bubic has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, posting an 11.51 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.20 — a 2.31 K/9 disparity.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

In comparison to his 90.4-mph average last year, Maikel Garcia's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 93.6 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Kansas City Royals have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense profiles as the strongest out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Hitters such as Jose Ramirez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kris Bubic who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 91 of their last 169 games (+2.05 Units / 1% ROI)
• Kyle Manzardo has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+13.60 Units / 136% ROI)

• Date: April 11, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kris Bubic - Royals
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

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