Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Pick & Preview – 8/28/2024

• Date: August 28, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On August 28, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Kansas City Royals in what promises to be an exciting American League Central matchup at Progressive Field. Both teams currently share identical records of 75-58, showcasing their competitiveness this season. However, while the Guardians boast the 9th best bullpen in MLB, the Royals sit at 20th in that department. This could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the game.

In their previous outing, the Guardians suffered a setback, while the Royals played relatively strong, with their standout player Salvador Perez showcasing an impressive week with 9 hits and 3 home runs. On the pitching front, Tanner Bibee is projected to take the mound for the Guardians. He has had a solid year with a 10-6 record and a respectable 3.46 ERA after 25 starts. Meanwhile, Michael Wacha, with an 11-6 record and a slightly better ERA of 3.32, is expected to start for the Royals.

Tanner Bibee is known for his high strikeout ability, boasting a 26.7% strikeout rate, but he faces a challenge against a Royals offense that ranks 2nd in MLB for the least strikeouts. This matchup may not play to Bibee's strengths. Furthermore, both pitchers are expected to pitch around 5.4 to 5.7 innings, with each projected to allow just over 2 earned runs.

Given the Guardians' slight edge in bullpen performance and home-field advantage, they might just have the upper hand, even as they navigate a challenging series against a strong Royals lineup. Betting markets have taken notice, listing the Guardians as the favorite with a moneyline of -140, indicating a belief in their capacity to secure the win today.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha has recorded 17.3 outs per start this year, ranking in the 81st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

MJ Melendez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.2-mph to 101.5-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kansas City's 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in MLB: #4 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts this year, notching a 9.78 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.45 — a 0.34 K/9 difference.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Steven Kwan has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 16.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit higher than his 6.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+5.75 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 away games (+13.05 Units / 48% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 43 games (+14.05 Units / 16% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.11 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.44

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