Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction & Odds – 7/29/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: July 29, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alec Marsh - Royals
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on July 29, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field, the disparity between the two teams is stark. The White Sox, with a dismal 27-81 record, have struggled mightily this season, holding the worst offense in MLB, ranking 30th in overall offensive performance. Conversely, the Royals boast a 57-49 record, indicating an above-average season with a solid 12th-ranked offense.

On the mound for the White Sox is Chris Flexen, who has had a tough year. With a 2-10 win/loss record and a 5.25 ERA, Flexen ranks as the 286th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 in the league according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, doesn’t offer much optimism for Flexen, projecting him to allow 3.0 earned runs and strike out only 3.4 batters over 5.4 innings. His low strikeout rate (16.9 K%) against a Royals lineup that ranks 2nd in least strikeouts could spell trouble.

Alec Marsh will take the mound for Kansas City. With a 7-7 record and a 4.75 ERA, Marsh has had a middling season but has been somewhat unlucky, evidenced by his 4.20 xFIP suggesting he could be due for better results. THE BAT X projects Marsh to allow 2.7 earned runs and record 5.0 strikeouts over 5.2 innings. His high flyball rate (36 FB%) might not be as detrimental against a White Sox offense that ranks 28th in home runs.

The Royals' offense, led by Bobby Witt Jr. who is hitting .417 with a 1.212 OPS over the last seven games, should have an edge. Witt has recorded 10 hits, 6 runs, and 5 RBIs in his last six games, highlighting his hot streak. On the other hand, Paul DeJong has been the White Sox's best hitter recently, batting .273 with 2 home runs and a .941 OPS over the last week.

Moreover, the White Sox's bullpen, ranking 30th in Power Rankings, is another concern for Chicago, whereas Kansas City's bullpen is a more respectable 18th. Given the overall context, the Royals, favored with a -165 moneyline, seem well-positioned to capitalize on the White Sox's ongoing struggles.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Alec Marsh's 2510-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 95th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Adam Frazier's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.2-mph EV last season has decreased to 84.7-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Generating 15 outs per game per started this year on average, Chris Flexen checks in at the 23rd percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Andrew Benintendi has been unlucky this year, putting up a .245 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .067 gap.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Korey Lee, Luis Robert, Paul DeJong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 81 games (+5.05 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+6.30 Units / 31% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 14 games at home (+13.50 Units / 96% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5.36 vs Chicago White Sox 4.51

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