Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 6/7/2025

On June 7, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Kansas City Royals at Guaranteed Rate Field in what promises to be an intriguing matchup in the American League Central. The White Sox are projected to start Adrian Houser, who has had a mixed performance this season, while the Royals will counter with Michael Wacha, who has been more reliable on the mound.

Adrian Houser, despite his impressive 1.47 ERA this season, is ranked 153rd among MLB starters. This suggests he may be experiencing a bit of good fortune, and his 3.62 xFIP indicates he could face challenges moving forward. He’s projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, but with a concerning tendency to struggle with strikeouts, only averaging 3.5 per game. This low strikeout rate could play into the Royals' favor, as they rank 3rd in the league for the least strikeouts.

On the other hand, Michael Wacha, who has a solid ERA of 2.88, is ranked 73rd among starting pitchers. His projections indicate he might allow fewer runs (2.5 earned) than Houser, and despite his below-average strikeout rate of 4.4, he has been a more consistent force for Kansas City this season.

Offensively, the White Sox rank 28th in several key metrics, including batting average and home runs, while the Royals are a bit better but still struggle, ranking 26th in overall offense. With the White Sox’s bullpen ranked dead last in the league, this should give the Royals an edge, especially given their current betting line as favorites with an implied team total of 4.33 runs compared to the White Sox’s low total of 3.67 runs. As the two teams face off again, the Royals may look to capitalize on their recent momentum and exploit the White Sox's vulnerabilities.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Drew Waters has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.4-mph to 91.7-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 6.9% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals makes them the #29 offense in the majors this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

As it relates to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Adrian Houser in the 13th percentile among all starters in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Extreme flyball hitters like Joshua Palacios generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Michael Wacha.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Joshua Palacios has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+9.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 36 games (+13.75 Units / 33% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 20 games at home (+8.10 Units / 41% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.97, Chicago White Sox 4.11

• Date: June 7, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Adrian Houser - White Sox

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