Kansas City Royals vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 7/23/2025

Wednesday’s mid‑afternoon showdown at Wrigley Field features the Kansas City Royals taking on the NL‑leading Chicago Cubs. Both clubs have secured one blowout win over the other in this series so far. Who will win Wednesday’s rubber match? To find out who I like, continue reading to get my Royals vs Cubs prediction for this matchup.

Our Royals vs Cubs Pick

• Pick: Chicago Cubs -1.5
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 23, 2025, 2:20 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cubs — Colin Rea (8‑3, 3.80 ERA)
  • Royals — Seth Lugo (6‑5, 2.94 ERA)
• Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Broadcast: Marquee Sports Network, FanDuel Sports Network Kansas City

Key Storylines

Pitching form

• Colin Rea has made 16 starts He has struck out 70 batters in 97 innings. He is allowing a hit per inning and has a higher WHIP than you’d like to see. But he could have a strong outing against an inconsistent Royals lineup here.
• Seth Lugo owns a tidy 2.94 ERA with 93 punchouts in 107 innings. He’s thrown five innings in eight consecutive starts and has secured 10 quality starts.

Bullpen usage

• Chicago’s bullpen enjoyed a clean outing on Tuesday. They allowed just two hits over the final two innings to finish a 6–0 shutout win.
• Both bullpens are in the top 10 in bullpen ERA so far this season.

Recent team streaks

• The Royals have won two of their last three games.
• The Cubs have lost two of their last three.
• These teams have split the first two games of this series in Chicago.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The winner of this game will win the regular season series between these teams.
• The Cubs are 26-20 in day games this year. The Royals are 20-21 in day games.
• The Cubs are 33-18 at home on the season. Kansas City is 25-27 on the road.

Cubs vs Royals Model Projection

• Score Projection: Chicago Cubs 6 – Kansas City Royals 3
• Win Probability: Cubs 60%, Royals 40%

Final Thoughts

I am going to lay the runline with the Chicago Cubs in their rubber match with the Royals today. Lugo is a solid starting pitcher for the Royals and should be fine in this game. But the Cubs are stronger from top to bottom and should be able to get a win that would guarantee them at least a tie with the Milwaukee Brewers atop the NL Central at the end of the day.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.