Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 8/4/2025
The Boston Red Sox will host the Kansas City Royals at Fenway Park on Monday night. The Red Sox are playing some of the best baseball in the majors going into this series opener. Here, I break down this American League matchup from a betting perspective and bring you my Royals vs Red Sox prediction for Monday.
Our Royals vs Red Sox Pick
- Pick: Under 9.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
| Matchup | Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox |
| Date & Time | August 4, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Starting Pitchers | Bailey Falter vs Brayan Bello |
| Stadium | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Broadcast | NESN and FDSKC |
Key Storylines to Watch
Team Momentum: The Royals have been on a hot streak. They have won four of their last five games and most recently took two out of three games against the Toronto Blue Jays. Boston has also been playing excellent baseball of late. They have won five games in a row and have worked their way into second place in the AL East.
Offensive Leaders: Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting .285 with 16 home runs. Boston’s Trevor Story continues to be a key contributor at the plate with 69 RBI for the Sox.
- Pitching Matchup: Bailey Falter will make the start for the Royals in this game. The former Pittsburgh Pirates is 7-5 this season and has a 3.73 ERA. Falter will be opposed by Brayan Bello of the Red Sox. Bello also has a 7-5 record for the season and is slightly better with a 3.19 ERA.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Trevor Story | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & Head-to-Head
- The Red Sox have gone 2-1 against the Royals so far this season.
The under has gone 2-1 in matchups between Boston and Kansas City this year.
Boston’s pitching staff has held the Royals to four total runs in their three meetings this year.
- The Red Sox have scored five runs or more in four of their last five games.
Royals vs Red Sox Model Projection
Projected Score: Red Sox 5 – Royals 4
Win Probability: Red Sox 60% | Royals 40%
Final Thoughts
If I had to choose a side to win this game, I would choose the Boston Red Sox. They are playing phenomenally of late and should continue to do so at home. But my best bet for this matchup is going to be the under rather than taking either side. Both starting pitchers are solid and should neutralize the opposing lineups for a good chunk of this game.
