Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 5/2/2025

Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on May 2, 2025, both teams enter the matchup having experienced inconsistent starts to the season. The Orioles sit at 12-18, while the Royals have managed a slightly better 17-15 record. Despite these records, the Orioles' performance has been underwhelming, with their offense ranked 21st in MLB, and they are coming off a rough stretch highlighted by their lack of offensive production.

On the mound, Baltimore's Dean Kremer takes the ball, slated to pitch 5.6 innings with an average projection of 3.1 earned runs. Kremer has struggled this season, posting a 2-4 record and an ERA of 7.04, positioning him as the 188th best starter in MLB. His high flyball tendency could be problematic against the Royals, who have hit the fewest home runs in the league this year. However, Kremer's low strikeout rate of 14.3% may also be an issue since the Royals rank 3rd in the least strikeouts.

On the other side, Kansas City's Michael Wacha presents a more favorable matchup with a 3.38 ERA and a Power Ranking of 74th among starters. Although his projected stats indicate he may allow 3.0 earned runs over 5.3 innings, Wacha's performance has suggested a degree of luck, as his xFIP stands at 4.35.

While the Orioles' offense has shown some pop with a strong ranking in home runs, their overall production has been lackluster. Conversely, the Royals’ lineup has failed to generate consistent offensive threats, evidenced by their 30th ranking in overall offensive performance. Given the Orioles' projected run total of 5.02 and the Royals' 4.48, this matchup is likely to center around which pitcher can better exploit the weaknesses of the opposing offense.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's 92.5-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.1-mph decrease from last season's 93.6-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Kyle Isbel's average exit velocity has declined this season; his 88.1-mph average last season has fallen off to 84.7-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's matchup, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.5% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #7 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Typically, bats like Cedric Mullins who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Michael Wacha.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Baltimore Orioles offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+9.15 Units / 61% ROI)
• Drew Waters has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+5.95 Units / 23% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.98, Baltimore Orioles 4.96

• Date: May 2, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles

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